Jan. 3, 2023

“If you have a recession, and you print a tonne of money and throw stimulus at it, you can get out of that recession quicker. But then you’ve done it at the cost of higher debt, and then potentially for a more inflationary rebound in the future, which then you have to then raise rates very quickly and potentially put yourself into another recession. And so there are levers you can pull, but every lever has a cost associated with it.”
— Lyn Alden

Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we look forward to 2023: what’s happening to Japan and China’s economies, whether we are entering a recession, and how will investments, including Bitcoin, perform over the next year?

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2022 was when chickens came home to roost. Over 70 years of relative peace across Europe had lured politicians into a false sense of security allowing cold pragmatism to supplant ideology. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and the wisdom of assimilating energy markets across the old iron curtain was brought into sharp relief. China sent equally belligerent signals to the west. In short order, retreat and resilience have replaced cooperation and efficiency.

Assumed certainties that had driven the world economy for generations dissipated in real-time. The economic impact was sudden: stressed supply chains, shortages of goods across all sectors, and dramatic changes in inflation. Excessive sovereign debt has limited governments’ options. We’re now in the central bankers' worst-case scenario: high inflation, high debt, and low growth. Advanced countries like Japan are now on the ropes. A global recession is looming.

So, how does one prepare for 2023? Where should we put our money? According to Lyn Alden, it’s far from easy to navigate this market. When a preeminent investment strategist talks of minimising losses you know that we’re in unfamiliar territory. And yet, there are still reasons not to lose hope. The world didn’t collapse in 2022. China’s economy should rebound.

It will take time for the world to reorder itself to the new rules of the game. Onshoring and durability are going to require significant investment. Debt levels make it harder to source the funds required. At the same time, we’re in a period of stagnation with potential volatility at given moments. Governments will have to chart a steady course through choppy waters. Investors will need to keep a close eye on markets and know where the lifeboats are.

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This episode’s sponsors:
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This episode is from What Bitcoin Did with Peter McCormack whose proprietor has full ownership and responsibility on its contents and artworks. It was shared using Castamatic, a podcast app for iPhone and iPad.